Wisconsin and Oregon. Separated at birth?

Unlike Oregon’s other recent Big Game opponents, teams with significant winning traditions and great pedigrees, the 2012 Rose Bowl saw the Ducks playing a team that was in many respects a mirror image of itself.

Not in the style of play or physical attributes – the differences between Oregon and Wisconsin on the field are well documented, and a subject of great debate on other sites – but in their histories, and what they’ve put their fans through over the years.

If Oregon’s dividing line between The Suffering and success is 1994, Wisconsin’s equivalent Year of Demarcation is 1993, when the Badgers, in Barry Alvarez’s third season, broke a 30 year Rose Bowl drought and a string of eight straight losing seasons.

As close chronologically as the teams respective Years of Demarcation are, their respective records during the preceding Decades of Suckitude, and subsequent Ages of Enlightenment, are also eerily similar:

	Period	Wins	Losses	Ties	Pct
Oregon	1965 – 1993	126	186	7	.406
Wisconsin	1964 – 1992	114	192	9	.376
Oregon	1994 – 2011	158	68	0	.699
Wisconsin	1993 – 2011	166	69	4	.703

It would be difficult to intentionally manipulate the performance of two teams to generate records this similar over almost identical periods.

There are so many similarities in Oregon and Wisconsin’s histories that it’s almost easier to find the differences. (There, one can start with Camp Randall Stadium, with almost twice the capacity of Autzen, and the legendary fanaticism of football fans in Wisconsin. Fan support for the Badgers is so solid that in 1968, when the team was suffering its second consecutive winless season, the stadium was still filled to 54% of capacity.  Only during the Don Morton era did attendance regularly dip below 40,000 – a major factor in his termination; he was replaced by Barry Alvarez in 1990. By contrast, during the years of abject apathy for the Ducks, in the mid-70s, the stadium was regularly half-empty, or worse… and Oregon has never gone winless once, never mind twice.)

Now, those similarities…

Separated at birth?	Oregon	Wisconsin
Modern Rose Bowl drought	37 years (1958 – 1995)	31 years (1963 – 1994)
9+ win seasons, 1945 - 1993	1 (1948)	None
9+ win seasons since 1993	11	10
Bowl appearances, 1900 – 1963 1	6	3
Bowl appearances, 1964– 2012	19	20
Losing seasons, 1964 – 1993	20	24
Losing seasons since 1994	1	2
Longest losing streak	15 games (10-5-74 to 10-18-75)	24 games (9-23-67 to 10-4-69)
Ten horrible but representative pre-1994 losses (* = home)	1972: 68-3, Oklahoma 1974: 61-7, Nebraska 1974: 66-0, Washington 1975: 5-0, San Jose St * 1976: 53-0, USC * 1976: 46-0, UCLA 1977: 54-0, Washington * 1982: 10-4, Fresno St * 1983: 21-15, Pacific * 1985: 63-0, Nebraska	1968: 20-0, Utah St * 1974: 52-7, Ohio St 1975: 41-7, Kansas * 1977: 56-0, Michigan 1978: 55-2, Michigan St 1978: 42-0, Michigan * 1988: 24-14, Western Michigan * 1988: 62-14, Michigan * 1989: 51-3, Miami FL * 1990: 24-18, Temple *
Swan Dive Season	1988 (6-1 start; 0-5 finish)	1977 (5-0 start; 0-6 finish)
Immovable Force Offense	1982 (103 points in 11 games)	1968 (86 points in 10 games)
Irresistible Object Defense	1977 (allowed 377 in 11 games)	1969 (allowed 349 in 10 games)
Minor bowl appearances that felt major to the teams at the time, considering	1989 Independence (W) 1990 Freedom (L) 1992 Independence (L)	1981 Garden State (L) 1982 Independence (W) 1984 Hall of Fame Classic (L)
Brief period of optimism	1979-1980 (winning seasons with John Becker as offensive coordinator)	1981-1984 (three bowls in four years under head coach Dave McClain)
Setback after brief period of optimism	Probation, 1980-1982 (for various offenses under John Becker as offensive coordinator)	Sudden death of head coach (Dave McClain died of heart attack during offseason, 1985)
Coach named Don who was fired after 3 years of blowout losses and declining attendance, who won a national championship in a lower division	Don Read (fired 1977; won D 1-AA title at Montana in 1995 )	Don Morton (fired 1989; won D-II title at North Dakota State in 1983)
Athletic Director who replaced a Hall of Fame legend (and damn near ruined everything)	Norv Ritchey (replaced Len Casanova, 1969)	Ade Sponberg (replaced Elroy Hirsch, 1987)
Athletic Director who saved the program	Bill Byrne (1982-1992)	Pat Richter (1990-2006)
AP poll appearances, 1964 - 1992	13 of 361 polls (.036)	9 of 361 polls (.025)
Anomaly	Celebrated 1994 conference championship by naming field after coach with losing record who bailed after winning conference championship	Celebrated 1993 win over Michigan by hospitalizing 73 fans after stampede to field
Signature win that finally ended The Suffering (or whatever Wiscy calls it)	Washington, 31-20, 1994	Michigan, 13-10, 1993
Established team as national power in his only Division 1 head coaching job, then became Athletic Director	Mike Bellotti	Barry Alvarez
Quarterback who threw for a zillion yards and set multiple Rose Bowl offensive records, despite losing	Danny O’Neil (1995)	Ron Vander Kelen (1963)
Longtime, bitter rival that has been utterly dominated for years	Washington (14-4 since 1994)	Minnesota (15-3 since 1994)

¹ Oregon was ineligible for bowl games other than the Rose Bowl from 1916-1958 and 1963-1974, but was granted an exception in 1948 season to play in the Cotton Bowl. From 1959-1963 Oregon played as a “Western Independent” and was eligible for other bowl appearances. As a member of the Big Ten, Wisconsin was ineligible to appear in any bowl game other than the Rose Bowl until 1977, when the conference relaxed its postseason rules.

benzduck’s Fun Civil War Facts.

While making the mistake of reading an OLive comment board recently, I ran across this gem:

“OSU frequently rises up and smacks the Ducks when they come in as heavy underdogs… Look for history to repeat itself”

As is my apparent role in life, I started looking into the history. Could this actually be true?

Well, no.

But I did discover a few facts that might come in handy for bar bets or to shut up an annoying orange neighbor.  (Civil War Fun Facts data)

1. OSU has not come into the Civil War with *more* wins on the season than Oregon since 1978. (Oregon won that year, 24-3.) Yes, Virginia, that is 33 years, and counting.
2. OSU has pulled off that “big upset” — a win over an Oregon team that came into the CW with a winning record — exactly three times since 1946:
   
   • 1959 — arguably the biggest upset of the Ducks in postwar history: 8-1 Oregon hosts 2-7 OSU expecting a win and a Rose Bowl bid, but apparently didn’t want it bad enough, losing at Hayward Field 15-7.
   • 1988 — Oregon, in a tailspin after losing Bill Musgrave for the season against ASU, enters the game at 6-4, but without a QB and just wanting to get the season over with; 3-6-1 bavers win, 21-10.
   • 1998 — Oregon, 8-2 but playing the last half of the season without a Pac10-quality running back, fights valiantly against the conditions, the officiating and the bavers, but loses a 44-41 thriller in 2 OT to 4-6 OSU.

That’s it. Three times in the last 65 seasons has OSU risen to smite its dominant oppressor.

Of the other eight “underdog” wins by scrappy, lunchpail-toting OSU, six came in seasons where both teams had losing records, and the other two were between teams within one game of each other in the win column — no big underdogs there.

Admittedly, OSU has more big upset wins over Oregon than the opposite — simply because Oregon hasn’t been an underdog to OSU very often since 1946.

Only seven games have been played where OAC has more than a one-win advantage on the season over the Ducks; that last happened in 1978, when a one-win Oregon team shocked 3-8 OSU, 24-3. (The line on that game was even.)

This is not to say that a win by four-touchdown-underdog OSU is unpossible. Stranger things have happened. But if the baver fan wants to hang his nutria-skin pill box hat on historic precedent, he’s going to have a hard time finding the hook.